The map's creation and launch

The Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, and the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Miliband, along with, Professor John Beddington, the UK Government’s Chief Scientist are launching a map of the impacts of a global 4°C (7°F) rise in temperatures.  The map was launched at the Science Museum on 22nd October. The Met Office Hadley Centre produced the map drawing together contributions from 27 leading scientists. The map represents the latest peer-reviewed science on the impacts.

The poster highlights some of the impacts that may occur if the global average temperature rises by 4 °C (7 °F) above the pre-industrial climate average.

It shows that this average rise will not be spread uniformly across the globe.  The land will heat up more quickly than the sea, and high latitudes, particularly the Arctic, will have larger temperature increases. The average land temperature will be 5.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.

The impacts on human activity shown on the map are only a selection of those that may occur, and highlight the severe effects on water availability, agricultural productivity, extreme temperatures and drought, the risk of forest fire and sea level rise.

Agricultural yields are expected to decrease for all major cereal crops in all major regions of production. Half of all Himalayan glaciers will be significantly reduced by 2050, leading to 23% of the population of China being deprived of the vital dry season glacial melt water source.

Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office says: “If emissions continue at the current rate the global average temperature are likely to rise by 4 °C by the end of this century or even substantially earlier. The science tells us that this will have severe and widespread impacts in all parts of the world, so we need to take action now to reduce emissions to avoid water and food shortages in the future.”

Prof. Chris Rapley CBE, Director of the Science Museum and Professor of Climate Science at University College London said: “The map provides graphic evidence of the dramatic transformation of our world that a 4 degree global temperature rise would trigger. It leaves no doubt of the paramount importance of a successful outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations.”

The impacts featured in this poster are not an exhaustive list, nor are they mutually exclusive.  

Notes for Editors

Please read additional commentary on the science of the map

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